# Treat every extreme result as partly luck, and expect the next period to be more average.

RIGOR · https://karlaurel.io/tips/extremes-are-partly-luck

A dazzling backtest, a brutal drawdown and a hot live month have something in
common: each is the tail of a distribution, and tails do not repeat on request.

Change the system against a pre-registered baseline, never against a single
extreme. Otherwise you will spend your time chasing noise and calling it
learning.